A View of the Start of COP28

The previous conferences of the parties (COPs) didn’t stop climate change and neither will COP28, which is happening now in Dubia in the United Arab Emirates. However, COP28 is an opportunity to hear what the powerful have to say about climate change, and it is our best hope of getting global agreement to help to minimise climate change.  While it is all too easy to be cynical about COPs they are moving the world, albeit too slowly, towards action and providing a voice for those who will be most affected by climate change.

COP28 is particularly challenging as Dr Al-Jaber, the President of COP28 is also CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.  While we all keep the contradiction of both relying on fossil fuels to power our lifestyles and trying to do good for the climate, he must be a million times more conflicted.  I have listened to a lot of the sessions and Dr Al-Jaber is very effectively highlighting issues around inclusivity that had stalled (keynote speech), so it is good news that a financial package for loss and damage was rapidly finalised with money behind it.  Great to see that the UK as the birthplace of the industrial revolution is putting funds into the loss and damage package.

There is no question that fossil fuels are the spectre in the room, Dr Al-Jaber over the first two days managed to tow the line without actually saying fossil fuels were the problem and while using terms like “phase-out unabated coal”, did stress that we had to stop CO₂ emissions urgently (Opening Session).

Unfortunately, day 3 didn’t go so well, during a She Changes Climate side-event while Dr Al-Jaber was discussing with the Irish ex-President Mary Robinson, one of the Elders, he stated there was no science to show how we could get to net zero without ending up in caves unless we continue (increase?) use of fossil fuels.  He challenged Ms Robinson to provide solutions rather than pointing out the problems of fossil fuel use and said as a developed country it was her problem not his.

Our prime minister also did not help the international case for scaling back use of fossil fuels, by signing declarations which called for other countries to reduce their production and use of fossil fuels having just licensed a massive expansion in UK oil and gas production.  This appears to other countries to be an example of very unjust treatment of developing countries by a developed country and is used by fossil fuel companies to continue to push fossil fuels into the developing world.

Talk is all very good, but we need actions and we have seen actions.  The local climate action session (https://youtu.be/7eBECX4v_nc) was inspiring where cities from around the world highlighted what they have been doing to reduce the 70% of carbon emissions which are associated with cities.  Dr Al-Jabber told them to be ambitious and think even bigger, this was backed up the UN Secretary General, “COP28 needs big thinking to keep within 1.5°C which means breaking our addiction to fossil fuels, making a fair just and equitable move to renewable energy and delivering climate justice for all.”  There are routes to keeping within 1.5°C from the UN IPCC, but also from other bodies such as the International Energy Association, all of them are clear that a large amount of current reserves of fossil fuels must to stay in the ground and that rapid reductions in CO₂ emissions need to happen before 2030 if we are not to massively exceed 1.5°C increase in global mean surface temperature.

While there is a lot of talk of the cost of transitioning to net zero, all studies show there are longer term cost savings and that the cost of not transitioning is many times higher.  However financial measure do have the faster impact on reducing carbon emissions, but the money raised by such measures mean that money is available to support those who are least able to afford increases in costs.  So when rich people say that we should continue to use fossil fuels to protect the poor, what they are often saying is that they don’t want to change their lifestyle or pay for the poor to be protected.

Canada for example is already redistributing the money from a carbon tax largely on businesses to its citizens. In the short term goods cost more, but you get compensated by a government payment.  In the longer term prices will drop as companies will avoid paying the carbon tax through increased energy efficiency, using less energy and using renewable energy, combined with the cost of renewable energy coming down due to economies of scale.

So whatever you hear about COP28 it is good to think where it is coming from, a fossil fuel company, a billionaire, a petrostate, a developing country, an NGO, whoever it is, what is said must get us to net zero, ensure access to clean green energy everywhere and deliver climate justice for all. The technologies have to work and not break either the laws of science or economics, so improved energy efficiency reduce CO2 emissions no matter the fuel, making something has to more expensive than its raw material and it takes time for technologies to develop, to build and for economies of scale to bring the cost down.

It is possible to get to net zero using current technologies already being used at scale (WWS for 145 countries), so the challenge should largely be not to invent new technologies (which will take decades to develop/scale up), but to deploy the technologies we now have urgently at scale.  So the discussion should be focused on what to deploy now, not about technologies which are not yet available.  Many of the technologies not yet at scale are publicised by the fossil fuel companies as often the technologies only advantage over existing technologies is that they would allow the continuing burning of expensive fossil fuels.

Lots more to happen at COP28, you can listen to the official sessions on COP28 UAE YouTube Channel (live and recorded).

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